ThoughtsOnline

Thursday, July 16, 2009


Obama is getting some flak for naming as many as three dozen 'czars' to manage everything from closing down Guantanamo to dealing with the automakers to dealing with Darfur.

In their rush to criticize Obama for 'threaten(ing) the Constitutional system of checks and balances', his critics, and especially those on the Republican side, are missing that this is undeniable evidence of a dysfunctional Executive Branch.

Think about this: Cabinet secretaries are tasked with overseeing a particular slice of government life: education, defense, the interior, foreign relations and so on. Yet the boundaries of where one department's oversight starts and where another one ends is pretty fuzzy... and the result is a clash between departments over everything from setting policy in that area to implementing the policy and taking credit if it works and passing blame if it doesn't. Defense and Intelligence argue, Defense and State argue, Commerce argues with Labor and so on.

And the problems don't stop there. Except for the Secretary and a few political appointees (and sometimes not even them), these departments march to their own beat. They pride themselves on not 'letting' political appointees dictate what they do and don't do (it's less of a problem for Democrats as government workers and Democrats are usually of a like mind).

And the end result is that Presidents have a hard time seeing their agenda advanced through the ranks of government... and nothing gets done smoothly... if at all.

And Obama, to his credit, realized this. In a perfect world, Commerce would be tasked with formulating and implementing the auto rescue (yes, I know, in a perfect world, the government wouldn't have gotten involved with the automakers), State would be tasked with handling our response to Darfur, Defense would handle closing Guantanamo Bay and so on.

But that ain't the way it happens in real life. And Obama figured that the only way he could exercise some control over the process was to bring his own folks in to handle specific tasks and to take away responsibility and control from the dysfunctional executive branch departments.

If the GOP was smart, they'd go after this, they'd argue that Obama's actions are evidence of a need to revamp the Cabinet and their hundreds of thousands of employees in a way that was more streamlined, less ineffective and inefficient. After all, when a government loving Democrat admits government is screwed up, why argue with him?

And the GOP would - if they were smart - use this to oppose Obama's health care plans... which would be administered by the same dysfunctional departments that Obama himself doesn't trust.


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Wednesday, July 15, 2009


A HUGE problem with making health care a 'right' is that, unlike other 'rights' that people have, it will lead to people expecting - and getting - for free the same level and quality of health care as enjoyed by those with money to pay for quality health care.

While there may be somewhat of a 'right' to housing or food, society doesn't guarantee - or pay - so everyone can live in the same size house as Donald Trump. Society doesn't cough up the money so everyone can eat as well as or as often as Trump.

Nor does society guarantee that everybody can petition Congress as often or as effectively as big campaign donors. Society doesn't guarantee that everybody gets to pray in churches or synagogues that are as nice as those frequented by rich folks who spend money building really nice places to worship. Society doesn't guarantee that every kid gets to go to a school that has the same quality of teachers and computer equipment as kids who have parents that make a lot of money.

In fact, I can't think of a single 'right' that society guarantees that every citizen can exercise that right to the same extent as those with money or connections. Society doesn't guarantee that everyone who wants to defend themselves have firearms at all, let alone firearms of the same quality as are owned by people who have the money to buy top quality firearms. Society doesn't guarantee that every criminal defendant gets an attorney as good as those that are able to be retained by those with a lot of money to their name.

But health care is going to be different. Congress isn't going to (not for long, if they even try) tell folks that their 'right' to health care doesn't entitle them to get access to the same diagnostic tests that people with money can get. They're not going to tell people that their 'right' to health care doesn't entitle them to get treated for cancer or respiratory distress or whatever else someone who is paying for their own health care can get. They're not going to provide people with less health care than they enjoy as Members of Congress.

And the reason is that, with the other 'rights' there is a sense that what people are being provided is 'good enough'. It's good enough to give people a room at a rat infested shelter. It's good enough to give people a handful of food stamps that doesn't allow them to buy steaks and champagne.

Providing a base level of health care to Americans may be a worthwhile idea, in the same way society has agreed to pay for a base level of housing and food. I doubt even the most uncompassionate conservative would object to providing emergency treatment for a woman giving birth or for a kid who's broken their arm or for someone suffering a heart attack.

But Congress isn't going to be able to get away (again, if they even try) with doing just this, with paying for less health care than is available. They're not going to tell people that, sorry, but we're not going to pay to diagnose and treat whatever it is that ails them.

And that is going to open the spending floodgates wider than for any thing else in the history of America... a level of spending that is so high that taxing away everything the rich make isn't going to be enough to pay the bills. And as we've seen with every other 'right', the gates only swing in one direction... once opened, they never shut, they only are pushed open wider and wider.


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Tuesday, July 14, 2009


Obama is part right in that hiring lags other signs of economic recovery... employers do wait for signs of recovery before they put up the 'Now Hiring' signs.

But what he doesn't acknowledge is that an increase in the number of unemployed workers is more a function of employees losing their jobs than it is a lack of hiring... and layoffs and failing businesses are a leading indicator of the lack of confidence employers have in the economy and Obama's ability (or willingness, you be the judge) to do anything about it.

An employer isn't going to lay off valued employees if the employer anticipates that the revenues will be there to pay the salaries, employers reduce staff out of fear that future revenues will be insufficient to cover salaries, pay the bank, the IRS and other vendors... and it is their lack of confidence in the economy that makes them project lower revenues. If businesses were more confident that the economy was turning around, they'd hold on to their staff (it's much less expensive to hold on to someone for a month or so than it is to lay them off and then have to replace them)... but they're not confident and they're not holding on to staff.

And that's why the unemployment rate is going to increase over the next months... not because employers are waiting to hire, but because they're not waiting to fire.


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Radley Balko goes off on yet another rant against police raids... which is in itself really a rant against the war on drugs. He doesn't like the latter, so he faults everything done pursuing drug dealers and users.

In this particular rant, he faults police for being "obstinate and unapologetic... even (or especially) when they're clearly in the wrong". Even if we stipulate the police are wrong, apologizing exposes the taxpayer to a larger payout from the inevitable lawsuit... and given the choice between publicly acknowledging fault and keeping my taxes low, I - and likely most taxpayers - would choose the latter. I think it's safe to say that the police would be much more willing to acknowledge the occasional error if they weren't so scared of being sued... does Balko want to give up the right to sue in return for an apology?

He cites a number of times where a pet was killed by police during a supposedly improper search or where nothing criminal was discovered during the search. But as I've pointed out previously, the supposed legality of the raid and whether something is or isn't found is irrelevant in judging the actions of the police during the raid. The standard should be whether the police responded appropriately during the raid. If a dog is deemed a threat to the safety of the officers, they can - and ought to - shoot the dog and regardless of whether there was a mistake in filling out the paperwork requesting approval for the raid and regardless of whether they discover whatever it was they were looking for. Note: I'm not saying that the police were justified in killing the dogs in all these cases, they very well may have shot the dogs without sufficient cause.

I do agree with Balko (surprise, surprise) that police departments ought to pay for damage they do during a search if they don't discover something criminal. I understand mistakes can be made, but if the police trash my house looking for drugs and they don't find any, then they ought to make me whole. Having said that, I recognize a (more than slim) possibility that police departments, anxious to avoid having to pay repair bills, may be more likely to 'discover' something improper... and given the choice, I think I'd prefer to eat the damages to my house than have to defend myself against planted evidence; with the former, it's only money, the latter can cost me my freedom.


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Going after the Bush Admin/CIA (whether for setting up a program to kill terrorists, torture or whatever) is the Democrats version of the GOP and immigration: it appeals to their core, and guaranteed to alienate the general public. Whatever the underlying merits of the respective sides are, just as the GOP can't convince the public they're not a bunch of racists, the Democrats can't shake the image of being soft on our enemies.


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Friday, July 10, 2009


Nationwide Insurance is touting the value of their 'Accident Forgiveness' program where they promise to not raise rates following an at-fault accident.

But only some drivers will benefit, others will pay more... not after an accident but before.

Insurance is a numbers game, and drivers are usually charged rates based on an assessment of the likelihood they will be in an at-fault accident. And the statistics have historically shown that once someone is in an at-fault accident the odds of them being in a second at-fault accident are higher than people who haven't (yet) been in an at-fault accident. Interestingly, it isn't that the odds of that particular driver being in an accident have gone up, they're pretty much the same driver they've been, it is that the insurance company is now able to identify them as a higher risk, as prior to their accident, those higher risk drives have blended in among the pool of people who haven't had an at-fault accident.

Anyway, back to Nationwide. By promising to not raise rates on people who, by being in an at-fault accident, have identified themselves as higher risk, Nationwide is spreading the costs of insuring these drivers among all of their insured drivers. Put another way, instead of the pool of drivers who haven't had an at-fault accident paying a low rate (based on the statistical presumption that, not having had an at-fault accident in the past, they are less likely to have one in the future) and drivers who have had an at-fault accident paying a higher rate (based on the statistically based assumption that they're more likely to have another at-fault accident), the increase in rates Nationwide would have assessed on the latter group has to be borne by drivers in both groups, thus leaving drivers in the former group having to pay more for insurance than they otherwise would have.

Now this doesn't mean that it is a bad move on Nationwide's part. One of the big fears among drivers - even among those who haven't and aren't likely to have an at-fault accident - is that their rates will go up if they cause an accident. Nationwide is betting that all drivers are willing to pay more up front for insurance in return for an assurance that they won't face higher rates in the future. For drivers who are likely to be in an at-fault accident, this is likely a great deal... for drivers who behave themselves and aren't likely to cause an accident, it's not such a good deal.


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Thursday, July 09, 2009


Tony Stewart caused Kyle Busch to crash at Daytona only to the extent that Stewart didn't lift off the gas or move away when Busch swerved in front of Stewart.

A driver is under no obligation to move out of the way of another car. They often do, but more out of courtesy (which evaporates the later the race goes) or a desire to not have their own car damaged than because they are rules-bound to avoid contact.

In this particular incident, Stewart held his line, and Busch didn't have enough room to swerve as he did. Sometimes it is the driver in Stewart's position who crashes, sometimes it is the driver in Busch's position who takes the hit and sometimes both cars suffer (bestowing a welcome and unexpected gift on the then-third place car). In this case, Busch suffered the consequences... and it is ridiculous for him to blame Stewart when the whole accident (as well as all of the subsequent crashes that were triggered by this crash) could have been avoided if Busch was content with second place. He wasn't, he moved to block Stewart and he crashed.


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According to Obama, "There is no contradiction between environmentally sustainable growth and robust economic growth".

Sounds good, right? Too good, right?

He might have a chance of someone believing him if, throughout recorded history, he could point to a single example of a country that grew its economy in a 'environmentally sustainable' way.

But he can't.

Being 'nice' to the environment invariably results in less economic growth than if one wasn't interested in being nice... for the simple reason that playing nice requires resources that can't be used to generate further economic growth. Money spent on cleaning waste water is money that can't be used to pump more oil out of the ground. Money spent on installing air filters on a factory is money that can't be spent producing more of whatever the factory produces.

Being 'nice' to the environment is something that people may choose to do if/when they feel the costs of doing so (easy to quantify) are less than the benefits of doing so (much harder, if not impossible, to quantify... but for developing countries, and especially in times of economic turmoil, the choice between additional production and an intangible environmental benefit, the choice is pretty easy.

And on a somewhat related note, it was allegedly Bush's arrogance that led other countries to go their own way... so how does Obama explain away the refusal of developing countries to jump on the global warming scare bandwagon?


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Tuesday, July 07, 2009


A pet peeve of mine is someone claiming some new breakthrough in thinking when in fact all they're doing is recycling and sometimes, repackaging, material that has been around as long as I have been (not quite as long as dirt, but close)... and I get even more ticked off when the breakthrough they're claiming to have discovered isn't all they're claiming it is.

And today's example is WIRED Magazine's Chris Anderson who claims that 'free' is the new 'plastics', that giving away stuff is the future of business, that companies which 'ignore the shift risk getting blindsided' and, presumably, suffering from a loss of sales and profits.

And he cites Google as an example of a company that makes lots of money 'giving away' its product. Sure, Google makes a lot of money, but Google's business model isn't new, it is simply an electronic version of the Yellow Pages. The phone companies never charged for the Yellow Pages, they gave it away to millions of customers and made billions of dollars from companies wanting to advertise.

Even his supposed examples don't support his claims. He cites the band Radiohead, which gave away songs over the Internet and which went on to make lots of money selling its album on line and from tour. All true, but does Anderson figure the band could have made even more money had it NOT given away its album? He seems to link the revenues they got (supposedly an average of $6 per sale) with their giving away the album... but that is silly, as it presumes that someone who paid money would otherwise not have done so if they didn't have the opportunity to download the album for free ("let's see, I really like Radiohead, I can't wait for them to come out with their new album, but I'm not going to buy it unless they let me download it for free"??? Yeah, right.)

There have always been companies that have given away product and/or services in some form in order to attract customers. Anderson cites Linux as an example (Linux is free but some companies pay consultants for assistance in setting it up) of this new development in business strategy, but that too is nothing new, all sorts of services-based companies have long given away 'free' services as an enticement; mechanics giving away 'free' diagnostics is but one example of how 'free' predates the so-called change Anderson touts (heck, it predates Anderson himself).

And Anderson compounds his arrogance (in thinking that he's discovered some new breakthrough) if he doesn't acknowledge that 'free', like every other marketing strategy ever invented, has its limits, that it doesn't work for every company in every instance. I'd love to see him try to come up with the way that GM is supposed to use 'free' to help restore itself to profitability (actually, if GM could get its employees to work for 'free', that would go a long way, but that isn't what Anderson has in mind). Or how a home builder is supposed to use 'free', at least the way Anderson frames it (which excludes giving away incentives, which is something builders have done since there were builders building houses). Are they to give their houses away, in hopes that they could make up the cost of the house in revenues from fixing all the defective crap in the house?

Giving something away can work... for some companies and some of the time. For other companies, it is the worst thing they can do. And it is consulting malpractice to suggest otherwise.


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By definition, if you quit, you are a quitter... even if you claim that you're not. It doesn't mean that Sarah Palin isn't a fighter, as one can be both a fighter and a quitter, just as one can be both a fighter and someone who can walk and talk and chew game at the same time, but saying 'I quit' irrevocably bestows upon you the tag 'quitter'.


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Like Peter King, I shake my head at the coverage of Michael Jackson's death... but my complaint is not with the media; they're chasing viewers (as they should be doing). What I find sad is that so many people are so wrapped up in Michael Jackson.

Jackson was a singer... period. He wasn't family, he wasn't a friend. Liking his music doesn't create a relationship between singer and listener. He wasn't someone who would loan you money if you needed to borrow a few bucks. He wasn't someone you would ask to watch your kids. He wasn't someone who would bring over a meal if you were laid up with a broken leg.

In other words, he wasn't family and he wasn't a friend (not that family and friends always do what I describe above... and not that there are some strangers who might).

And the outpouring of grief ought to be reserved for friends and family. Heck, I'd bet there are some people who have cried more for Jackson than they have or will for a member of their own family.... and that is so wrong on so many levels.

And it isn't just Jackson, it's the entire hero/celebrity worship that I find so sad. Whether a singer... or an actor.... or an athlete... getting all wrapped up in worshiping these people is prima facie evidence that you don't have your head on right. These people don't know you.... they don't want to know you... and all they want from you is your money.

There's nothing wrong with thinking that a particular actor is a decent guy... or that a particular pro athlete is someone you might like to sit next to at dinner. But when you get to the point where you're signing a wall to express your sadness at Jackson's death... or writing into PEOPLE magazine to defend celebrity X against charges that she is exploiting her 8 kids... or glued to the TV watching coverage of a celebrity princess's funeral after her driver drove her into the side of a Paris tunnel... you need help.


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Monday, July 06, 2009


I don't know why Obama's trip to Russia is being touted as a test of his skills of diplomacy... after all, why should Obama be viewed as failing when he is unable to persuade Putin to do things that Putin doesn't want to do?

People who place their faith in 'diplomacy' are in effect saying that a nicely crafted and delivered message ought to be sufficient to convince someone to do something they otherwise wouldn't have wanted to do (if they did want to do X, then there's no need for diplomacy, is there?).

And that is the textbook definition of ego, naivete and arrogance (yes, a combination of all three).

If we presume that Putin is doing what Putin thinks makes sense for him, why would Obama - or any other 'diplomat' - think they possess the magic combination of words that can persuade Putin to admit that he is wrong? Do they believe they have information that Putin lacks that would lead Putin to change course? Do they think Putin is misreading the situation and that they'll help Putin see the error of his ways?

The only things that could make Putin change his mind is (1) a bribe, sufficient that Putin can get more from the bribe than he could from doing whatever he's been doing, or (2) a threat, and sufficient and credible to the point where Putin thinks he would lose more by continuing with doing whatever he has been doing.

Now Obama isn't one for the latter, which leaves him only with the first option. And because Obama has put so much faith in the art of 'diplomacy', he can't accept the failure of not obtaining Putin's agreement on something (note: this isn't an issue for grownups who realize that diplomacy ain't what it is cracked up to be). He is thus under incredible pressure to not come home without something to show for his efforts.

So when Obama comes back with an 'agreement', I'd bet dollars to donuts that Obama gave up something pretty valuable for Putin to go along.


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Saturday, July 04, 2009


Two words for those thinking that Sarah Palin has a future in national politics: Dan Quayle.

Quayle, like Palin, was criticized mercilessly. He was blamed for things he didn't do and things he wasn't, he was ridiculed for being in over his head. He did far better against Lloyd Bentson in the 1988 debate than will ever be remembered thanks to the 'you're no John Kennedy' and he mopped the floor with Al Gore during their debate in 1992. And Quayle, like Palin might choose to do, worked diligently with the base in hopes of launching a run for President.

But the impression (however unfair) of him as a lightweight was set, there was no way he or anyone else could have persuaded the public to change their mind of him. And as such, he went nowhere... at least not in politics; he's done very well for himself in business.

And the same fate lies for Palin. No one can go from butt of late night jokes to the stature needed to win the votes needed to become President.... heck, despite the urgings of the rabid right, she won't even be able to win the nomination, she's carrying just too much baggage.


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Thursday, July 02, 2009


A lot of people are arrogant to the point where they think their words are sufficient to get someone to change his or her behavior.

Obama's arrogance is showing itself again, this time with his planning on telling Putin the 'Cold War is over' and thinking that this is going to lead to Putin doing anything differently than whatever it is that Putin has been doing.

Let's break this down. Does Obama think that Putin is doing things that he knows aren't in his best interests? If so, on what planet must Obama be living if he thinks that Putin is going to stop doing something that Putin feels is in his best interest because Obama tells him 'the Cold War is over'? This isn't a case of staging an intervention with an alcoholic or drug addict, where deep down they know they're engaging in self-destructive behavior. There is no way that Putin doesn't believe his actions aren't in his best interests.

Or does Obama think that Putin is stupid, that he isn't aware that what he is doing isn't in his best interests? Actually, that's a trick question, as it doesn't matter if Putin's actions are or aren't in Putin's best interest, what is important is that Putin thinks he is acting in his best interests... and accordingly, isn't going to stop.

The fact of the matter is that people don't stop doing what they think is in their best interests unless and until they are given irrefutable evidence that another path of action will yield them more of a benefit than whatever it is that they've been doing.

But what can Obama offer to Putin that will make Putin amenable to changing his ways? Obama isn't the guy who is going to put serious pressure on Putin. And by pressure, I mean something that actually hurts Putin. Obama isn't going to impose economic sanctions on Russia. He isn't going to threaten to boost American defense spending in hopes of bankrupting Russia a second time. Heck, he won't even put diplomatic pressure on Putin because Obama is afraid that he would come across as just as bad as Bush.

The twist in all this is that Obama delivering this message actually encourages Putin to continue doing whatever it is that he is doing. It reveals (to the extent it already hasn't been revealed) that Obama is in way over his head. It reveals that Obama really doesn't have a clue how the world works. To the extent that Putin has been wondering if Obama could really be as naive as he's appeared so far, Obama's not so great adventure is going to remove whatever doubts Putin has. And when Putin decides that Obama really is clueless and easily manipulated, that can only lead to Putin doing more of whatever it is that Obama doesn't like.


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With unemployment continuing to rise and the stock market not showing any reason sign of optimism, it is nice to see that the GOP has finally started to go after Obama for the sorry state of the economy... and, in particular, how his and his fellow Democrats' much-touted stimulus plan has done nothing.

Obama promised us that if he got his stimulus plan that unemployment would top at at 8%... well, the unemployment rate is now well over 9 percent and shows no sign of dropping anytime soon.

And Obama's incompetence at formulating an effective stimulus plan absolutely positively has to be a component of the GOP fight against Obama's crazy health care plans. Here a few suggestions for taglines:

"Obama spent hundreds of billions of dollars on the economy and has absolutely nothing to show for it... what's going to happen when he starts spending money on 'fixing' health care?"

"Don't let the guy who screwed up the economy screw up your health care..."

"Obama fooled us once when he promised to fix the economy...shame on us. Now he's asking us to believe him when he says he can improve health care... do we look stupid?"


"Millions of people have lost their jobs since Obama took it upon himself to rescue the economy... how many millions of people will lose their health care coverage if he is able to push his health care rescue package through Congress?"

Keep in mind that no amount of pressure is going to get Obama to back off, he's too arrogant to think that he may just not be the right guy for the job. And as he's a liberal, he will ignore factual proof that his policies are screwing things up.

The pressure needs to be put on the Congressmen and Senators who aren't, like Nancy Pelosi, representing the bluest of the blue districts and states. Not every Democrat has the freedom to screw the country without fear of losing their seat. These are the people who need to be pressured... without their votes, Obama and Pelosi can't push their agenda on the rest of us.

Spending time blasting Obama for his ridiculous stances on Iran and Honduras may score some rhetorical points but doesn't lessen his power domestically. Blasting him for making the economy worse - worse than even he claimed it would be - will hurt him... and what hurts Obama politically helps the rest of us. Going after Obama is just what the doctor ordered.... and it is nice to see the GOP finally starting to listen.


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Keep in mind that while hiring is a lagging indicator, as employers tend not to hire more people until there's a proven need for additional staff (and until there's money in the bank to pay for more staff), layoffs are a leading indicator of how employers view the economy.

Yes, layoffs often follow a business suffering a decline in revenue and profits... but, having already paid for the staff during those declines, the decision to lay off staff is an indication that the employer thinks the future will be as bad - or worse - than it is now. In fact, plenty of companies have laid off people even though sales and profits haven't dropped, they've laid off staff because they think sales will drop and they want to get their expenses in line with the anticipated decline in revenues.

Thus, news that the unemployment rate continues to climb, with another 467,000 jobs being cut last month is indicative of just how little confidence employers have in Obama's economic policies.

Employers don't think Obama's policies are going to work, at least not in the immediate future. If they did, they wouldn't be laying off people they've spent money to train, they wouldn't be causing disruption to their remaining workforce as employees have to redeploy to pick up the work that was done by employees who have been laid off.

If employees thought Obama's policies were going to work, they would have held off laying off employees. At worst, they would have cut far fewer workers than they did.


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An under the radar example of judicial activism can be found in a federal judge keeping NASCAR from keeping (alleged) meth user Jeremy Mayfield off the racetrack.

So what that the judge thinks the "harm to Mr. Mayfield significantly outweighs the harm to NASCAR"? It isn't for the judge to decide who gets hurt worse.

Mayfield agreed to drive by NASCAR's rules, no one is forcing him to drive a race car for a living. In doing so, he agreed that NASCAR would be the judge and jury with regards to the administration of drug tests.

And now he doesn't like the results so he sues. In doing so, Mayfield is like those idiots who move under the flight path of a nearby airport then complains about the noise.

And on what basis does a judge have from keeping NASCAR from proceeding, other than his own desire to stick his nose where it doesn't belong? What law is being broken b NASCAR? What contract is NASCAR breaking? There may in fact be a high chance of the results being wrong, but it doesn't matter. In this case, 'unfair' doesn't apply to the chance that Mayfield could be punished on the basis of faulty test results, changing the rules after the fact because you don't like the result is what is unfair.

If I were running NASCAR, I would ignore the judge, I wouldn't let Mayfield race. Write him a check for his likely 38th place finish and keep him off the track. The purpose of the drug testing is to keep drug users off the track and away from the other racers. If NASCAR believes Mayfield used drugs, they have an obligation to the other drivers and to the sport as a whole to keep Mayfield away.

Don't throw in the towel. By instituting the drug policy, NASCAR was standing up for principle. Don't let the actions of a out-of-line judge deter you from doing what is right.


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Wednesday, July 01, 2009


It's not just liberals who have no clue when it comes to dealing with the so-called health care crisis, conservatives can be just as clueless.

For example, John Hawkins has a column in which he touts four ways of reducing health care costs. Unfortunately, his ideas will do nothing of the sort.

John confuses 'prices' paid by patients with the 'costs' incurred by doctors and hospitals in providing that care. He also mixes up the costs of 'health care' with the costs of 'health insurance'; as I've said many times, they are not one and the same.

Allowing people to buy health insurance from out of state insurers (his first suggestion) might result in lower health insurance costs for some people but does nothing to lower the costs of providing the health care those people will receive. My doctor will incur the same costs treating me regardless of whether the payment comes from an in-state or an out-of-state insurer. In fact, the costs incurred in treating a patient are the same regardless of whether the payment comes from an insurer, out of my pocket or from the government. The only thing that varies is how much of those costs the doctor receives in payments from whomever is writing the check.

An insurance company can offer lower rates only by doing one of three things: it can administratively more efficient (for example, if it figures out a way of needing fewer people to process claims), two, by accepting a lower profit margin, or, three, by paying out less in claims. The first does lead to less money being spent on health care, but chasing administrative savings has limited upside (there are only so much in efficiencies that can be wrung out of the claims process). Likewise with the second. There may be some insurance companies willing to work for less but there's a limit (zero profit), beyond which a company goes out of business. And the third option, paying less in claims, just shifts dollars from one pocket to another.

John also proposes fixing Medicare (a common recipe from both the right and left). John's complaint is that Medicare doesn't reimburse anywhere near the full costs of the treatment thus costing people outside Medicare more money. But while increasing the Medicare reimbursement rate might lead to lower costs for non-Medicare patients, it does nothing to lower the overall costs of medical care, it simply shifts the burden of paying for those services from one group to another.

John's on more solid ground with his call for tort reform. To the extent that so-called unnecessary tests are being performed, eliminating these would bring down the costs of medical care. However, medical malpractice does impose a cost on the affected patient and society as a whole; cutting back a patient's ability to be made whole doesn't reduce the costs of medical care, just as with John's other suggestions, it simply shifts the costs of medical screw ups from the doctor who screws up to the patient who has to bear the costs of those screw ups without reimbursement.

His final point, giving tax credits to individuals rather than businesses for buying health insurance would result in less money being spent on health care... but only in the short term. To the extent that individuals spent their 'own' money on health care, they would likely spend less... but at the cost of deferring basic care, choosing on the basis of price rather than quality and so on... all of which is going to come back to bite them in the form of a lot more money spent later fixing all of the things that weren't taken care of the first time around (think of the old FRAM oil filter commercials: 'you can pay me now or you can pay me later').

As I've said before, there are really two issues: how much money should be spent on health care and who pays for those costs? To the extent it is possible to spend less money for the same (or better) level of health care, great.... but John's suggestions don't get us there.


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Wednesday, June 24, 2009


Whether it is Sanford, Ensign, Spitzer, McGreevey or Clinton, why can't these a******s keep their d***s to themselves? Guys, it ain't that hard, repeat after me: if you're married, you don't cheat. period. end of sentence.


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Tuesday, June 23, 2009


Perhaps if Washington Metro management had been less concerned with spending billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of man hours to expand their (not-so-little) empire, they would not have ignored warnings to replace aging subway trains which may (emphasis on 'may') have prevented yesterday's fatal crash.

But as has happened elsewhere, taking care of the existing system takes a back seat to expansion. Taking care of existing bridges isn't as important as building new bridges. Maintaining existing roads and sewers and so on just isn't as sexy as building new roads and so on. Taking care of the existing military arsenal is secondary to building lots of shiny new jets and tanks. Existing school infrastructure crumbles while new schools are built.

Building new stuff gives local politicians nice ribbon cutting ceremonies to attend... but it also, as may be the case here, leaves them needing to face the cameras to express their sorrow and condolences to the families of the victims.... just don't make the mistake of expecting them to apologize for the ramifications of their screwed up priorities.


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I've made the point that while the recession is hurting segments of the economy, there are segments that should be suffering no ill effects. People with steady, safe jobs who didn't overpay for their house or take out an exotic mortgage may have suffered some deterioration in their retirement plans but ought to otherwise be doing okay.

Still, I wonder just how 7% of respondents rate the economy as good or excellent.

Are they ignorant of what is going on? Are their expectations so low that this counts as good? Or are they incapable of looking outside their own situation?


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Some of the suggestions for making NASCAR races more exciting involve putting a higher value on winning races (for example, limiting the Chase to drivers who have won a race).

These suggestions don't go far enough. Yes, there have been instances when a driver 'settles' for second place rather than push for a possible win risking a crash that could cost him points... and awarding more points to the race winner might be the incentive drivers close to the lead need to go for the win.

But while this proposal might increase the intensity of those running at or near the front, it does nothing to change the dynamic for the other 38 or so drivers in the race. A driver running in 12th - 15th - 20h - 25th place usually has no chance for the win and thus has no incentive to do anything buy maintain his track position.

And this proposal also does nothing to increase the intensity of racing during the early and middle segments of the race. At a lot of tracks, there is very little hard racing during the first 400 or so miles (of a 500 mile race); most drivers seem content with figuring out their car and staying out of trouble to give them a shot at a decent finishing position. Other than getting a measly 5 bonus points for leading a race (and the possibility of another 5 points for leading the most laps), there isn't anything that rewards a driver running in 28th place from making a push to pass the driver in 27th place, nor is there a real downside for a driver letting another driver pass him.

Thus, the change that I would propose making would be to award points not just on a driver's finishing position but also on the driver's average position throughout the race as well. Drivers would be rewarded for passing as many drivers as they could and they'd be rewarded for keeping as many cars behind them as possible. A driver who finishes 8th after running in the top ten during most of the race would receive significantly more points than is now the case than the driver who finished 9th after running in the back of the pack for most of the day.

With my proposal, a driver gets more points for passing other drivers and loses points for being passed. It gives drivers a incentive to pass the driver in front of them and to stay in front of the drivers behind him (it would also penalize those who hang out at the back at Talledega until the end).

With this change, fans would see hard racing from the drop of the green flag through the end of the race... and not just at the front, but throughout the field. What more can a race fan ask for?


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Monday, June 22, 2009


A tale of two leaders...

Obama doesn't speak out in support of the protesters in Iran because he doesn't want the Mad Mullahs to get mad at him for this alleged 'meddling' in Iranian affairs.

Ahmadinejad actually meddles in American affairs, by supporting and funding terrorists who attack and kill American soldiers and civilians, with no fear that he will suffer any consequences for doing so.


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Saturday, June 20, 2009


It's been said that Americans end up with the government they deserve... and based on the terrific logic employed by this Northern Virginia voter during the recent race for the Democratic Party nomination for Governor, we don't deserve a lot.

Granted, I didn't vote for Terry McAuliffe either (because, being a Republican, I didn't think it right to meddle in the Democratic primary), but this lady's logic for not voting for McAuliffe is just, how do I put it, ridiculous.

She says she didn't vote for McAuliffe because, one, his campaign called her home too many times... and because she doesn't like Virginia's one-term limit for Governor which, supposedly would allow a carpetbagger (I guess she is referring to McAuliffe in this way) to use the position as a stepping-stone to a national career.

Notice she didn't say she didn't vote for McAuliffe because of his positions on the issues... and as such, there are two scenarios: (1) she doesn't care about the issues at all, and thus decides to vote on something as trivial as the number of phone calls a campaign makes, or (2) she does care about the issues, and likes McAuliffe's positions better than that of his two opponents (if she didn't, she would have said she voted against McAuliffe on that basis) but was so put out by the something else that she decided to vote against the guy whose positions she liked best.

If the former, what a dunce, deciding to vote on the basis of something as silly as the number of phone calls a candidate's campaign makes is pretty dumb. It's not as if McAuliffe himself made the phone calls, the calls were probably made pursuant to a campaign strategy designed and executed by McAullife's campaign staff.

And if the latter, what a dunce, it is pretty stupid to not vote for the guy who you agree with on the issues because of something as silly as the number of phone calls the candidate's campaign made. Did it not occur to this voter that the calls would stop once the campaign was over? And if she did agree with McAuliffe on the issues, wouldn't having the phone ring be a small price to pay for seeing her candidate win?

And the same holds true if she voted against McAuliffe - who she presumably agreed with on the issues - because of a belief that McAuliffe was going, like current Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, to check out early. First of all, Kaine ain't a carpetbagger and he has turned his attention elsewhere, so why not assue that McAuliffe's primary opponents would be just as likely to check out early? And, again presuming she liked McAuliffe's positions on the issues more than she like the other guys, wouldn't it be better to have the guy you like in office, even if he wasn't going to stick around for the full four years, than to have a guy who you don't like serving as Governor for four years?

Yeah, yeah, she got on her soapbox, she doesn't like automated phone calls and she ain't happy with Virginia limiting its Governors to one term... but there are better ways of expressing one's dissatisfaction with that than voting against the guy who shares her positions on the issues.

As I said, we get the representation we deserve. America didn't bother to check out Obama past the teleprompter speeches.. and we ended up with a President who doesn't really have too much going on in his head.


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